Caruso Weekend Report: March 30, 2025
This report is a small part of the Caruso Insights membership and serves as an excerpt from the full weekend report. It is provided to members as a quick takeaway document for the upcoming week.
Weekend Summary
Market uncertainty resumed as tariff worries ramped up ahead of the April 2nd deadline. Interestingly, markets accelerated lower Friday despite news that the EU was preparing trade concessions. This Friday weakness is typical in down trends as investors begin to worry about weekend headlines. Looking at the FOMO indicator, you can see that investors have returned to a state of fear after momentary excitement on the rally attempt. Also note the Fear which similarly bult up last Friday.
Though Friday’s selling was very widespread, the Nasdaq remains the clear weakest index as it closed back at the lows of this correction. When compared to Mid Caps and the NYSE Composite, it is clear that tech is leading the market lower as not only have tariff uncertainties increased, but AI excitement has also waned. As dreadful as market feels, it is important to keep a watch of which stocks resist the weakness, and for the first time in over two years, it is not the heavy weights of the QQQ. Mid caps and the NYSE composite are yet to break or re-test their recent lows, unlike the QQQ.
Case study
The late 2018 bear market remains my base case for the current market. Not only is price action similar, but the correction was also driven by a new policy rather than a deep economic slow down. After a 79 day 24% correction, the market bottomed and made a steep recovery once the cause of concern (the FED), changed it’s course.
We are currently 69 days and 15% into this 2025 correction, which can similarly be ended should the cause of concern (Tariffs) is addressed or negotiated. Though the market remains under pressure, a Tariff resolution will likely lead to a quick and stronger recovery than most expect.
Market direction
Rather than hope for the best, Caruso Insights follows a structured process to assess ideal portfolio exposure and market direction. We are having a live Workshop (with Q&A) on April 12th, dedicated solely to market direction, which will teach what drives markets, how to track changes and how to remain optimally positioned. To learn more, please visit: https://www.carusoinsights.com/workshop
“Don’t be thrown off by the swarm of gloom and doomers. In the long run, they have seldom made anyone any money or provided any real happiness. I have also never met a successful pessimist.” – William J. O’Neil
Register for the Workshop